First Tensions Rising

It is summer pause in Kyrgyz politics. Politically hot times are spring and autumn, times in which the Zhogorku Kenesh, the national parliament, tries to debate and times in which politicians try to use the public attention to bring forward their wired claims. In addition in autumn the weather usually is not as hot as it usually uses to be during July or August in Kyrgyzstan. Put differently: demonstrating on the streets is easier, when the sun is not burning the protesters to death. So, naturally, it is rather calm right now in Bishkek and the rest of the country.

However, recent announcements, by government and opposition politicians alike, seem to express some form of nervousness regarding future political developments. Former and perhaps new opposition leader Almazbek Atambaev not long ago stated that the government should do more on the rising food and energy crisis if it does not want to be kicked out of office by another revolution. President Bakiev today, on the 24th of July, gathered the cabinet of ministers and heavily criticized them for not fulfilling orders (i.e. plan-fulfillment). Those were given in January 2008 and strictly ordered the ministers to secure the economic growth rates of 2007. But out of 53 measures to be taken by the ministers only 48 have been realized so far (although the Kyrgyz government consists of 14 ministers, the prime minister and his deputIES (plural!)).

Unfortunately the capitalist economy is as unrulable as is the command economy, especially when it is integrated into global capitalist economic processes. And thus today predictions for the future Kyrgyz economy are dark, purely dark. The inflation rate is expected to increase to 29% by the end of the year, the export rate in this year rose by 18%, whereas the import increased by 40%, causing a huge imbalance in the country’s external trade figures. With unstoppable rising food and energy prices, with a lack of water in the main water reservoir (Toktogul’skoe Vodokhranilishche: July 2008 – appr. 9 trillion m²; July 2007 – appr. 13.3 trillion m²) and surely not enough gas being supplied by Uzbekistan in the upcoming winter, tensions within the political debate slowly start to rise.

Today’s gathering was a first initiative by president Kurmanbek Bakiev to demonstrate strength. His order to hand in a list with ministers who are not fulfilling their duties (meaning: not saving the country’s economy from the inevitable) indicates to a possible cabinet’s reshuffle in the nearer or at least not so distant future. So far the Minister for Economic Development and Trade (such a ministry really exists!) Zhaparov was heavily criticized by the president himself as was his colleague, Minister for Industry, Energy and Fuel Resources (!) Saparbek Balkibekov. With prime minister Igor Chudinov being a pure puppet in Bakiev’s hand it is even likely that a new prime minister will be selected soon. November or December would be a good time for a new prime minister. The reason for the selection of the date would be as follows: the new prime minister just entered office and his duty is only to mitigate the consequences of the crisis which has been created by others (Chudinov & Co.). No miracles can be expected of him since he just started his term. This way, everybody can be blamed, but no one takes responsibility. And when the crisis is done, the crisis prime minister will be dismissed and a new party apparatchik gets the position. This interpretation explains the crisis as a chance for the power system, which regularly requires position reshuffles to satisfy all co-optational needs in the political sphere.

Perhaps the old crisis prime ministers Atambaev comes in for a second term? It seems unlikely, since it is difficult to sell such an appointment to the public. More likely is the appointment of one of the leaders of the opposition campaign, that is expected to gain momentum in September this year. However, being aware of the catastrophy in Tadzhikistan last winter, most people probably will spend all their time getting prepared for the cold period and not paying attention to oppositional claims. With no public getting into protest mood, opposition leaders have no chance to lead. In that case another party apparatchik (perhaps a woman? why not Bakiev’s loyal soldier Elmira Ibraimova?) would absolutely fit for the position.