Wahrheit und Fiktion in der Kyrgyzischen Republik

Klar, es ist Präsidentschaftswahlkampf und man muss als Regierender zumindest so tun, als wolle man um die Stimmen der Wähler buhlen. Nötig hat es der amtierende Präsident Bakiev aber nicht, schließlich garantiert ihm eine meinungsfreie Öffentlichkeit und ein startbereiter Manipulationsapparat sowohl die Abwehr möglicher Konkurrenten (vom Schlage eines Atambaevs oder auch eines Temir Sarievs) und zugleich einen fantastischen Sieg mit überraschend hohen Stimmwerten.

Um so mehr verwundert es, dass sich BAKS (Bakiev, Kurmanbek Salievich) hinablässt auf die Ebene billigsten Populismus. Er brüllt geradezu ins Land, dass ab dem 1. Juli die Renten um 50% angehoben werden. Also keine feine, in Abstimmung mit möglichen demographischen oder steueraufkommenstechnischen Veränderungen vorgenommene Anpassung der Sozialausgaben, sondern brachialer Bruch mit der Vergangenheit, auf in die lichte Zukunft per Ukas. Verdient haben es die Rentner und Rentnerinnen in Kyrgyzstan natürlich. Das steht ganz außer Frage. Von den 10 Euro 50 kann man im Monat eh nicht so richtig leben. Genauer gesagt, es lebt sich verdammt beschissen. Jubel und Dankbarkeit also jedem, der solch Verbesserung einführt. Und das freut den alten und neuen Präsidenten.

Kein Strom aber 5-Jahres Pläne

Heute kamen gleich zwei interessante Nachrichten über den Ticker der größten kyrgyzischen Nachrichtenagentur AKIpress. Einmal wurde berichtet, dass Kazakhstan, was nördlich an Kyrgyzstan angrenzt, seinen Ausstieg aus dem zentralasiatischen Energieverteilungsnetz verkündet hatte. Anlass war wohl nach kazakhischen Angaben die illegale Entnahme von Strom durch tadzhikische Stellen (südlich an Kyrgyzstan angrenzend). Für Kyrgyzstan ist diese kazachische Maßnahme ein Problem.

Impressions from the International Green Week

I went to the International Green Week in Berlin.  I had heard, that Kyrgyzstan was present with a small collection of national products, that my beloved Republic was providing the hundreds of thousands of visitors at the fair with a taste of life and culture (and kitchen) of the Tien Shan.

Well, my first impression was somewhat disappointing. The pavilion was rather small and the staff inside was made up of one young guy and two old men, sitting in the back, not talking and looking somewhat repellent. The products presented were a small collection of what Kyrgyzstan is famous of. Cognac one could find there and, of course, many bottles of Vodka. There were sweets and Lapsha, Chaj and Travy and various sorts of nuts (walnut of course). Somewhere inside Shyrdak was shown and some info sheets explained to the visitor some basic facts about the Switzerland of Central Asia.

First Tensions Rising

It is summer pause in Kyrgyz politics. Politically hot times are spring and autumn, times in which the Zhogorku Kenesh, the national parliament, tries to debate and times in which politicians try to use the public attention to bring forward their wired claims. In addition in autumn the weather usually is not as hot as it usually uses to be during July or August in Kyrgyzstan. Put differently: demonstrating on the streets is easier, when the sun is not burning the protesters to death. So, naturally, it is rather calm right now in Bishkek and the rest of the country.

However, recent announcements, by government and opposition politicians alike, seem to express some form of nervousness regarding future political developments. Former and perhaps new opposition leader Almazbek Atambaev not long ago stated that the government should do more on the rising food and energy crisis if it does not want to be kicked out of office by another revolution. President Bakiev today, on the 24th of July, gathered the cabinet of ministers and heavily criticized them for not fulfilling orders (i.e. plan-fulfillment). Those were given in January 2008 and strictly ordered the ministers to secure the economic growth rates of 2007. But out of 53 measures to be taken by the ministers only 48 have been realized so far (although the Kyrgyz government consists of 14 ministers, the prime minister and his deputIES (plural!)).

Unfortunately the capitalist economy is as unrulable as is the command economy, especially when it is integrated into global capitalist economic processes. And thus today predictions for the future Kyrgyz economy are dark, purely dark. The inflation rate is expected to increase to 29% by the end of the year, the export rate in this year rose by 18%, whereas the import increased by 40%, causing a huge imbalance in the country’s external trade figures. With unstoppable rising food and energy prices, with a lack of water in the main water reservoir (Toktogul’skoe Vodokhranilishche: July 2008 – appr. 9 trillion m²; July 2007 – appr. 13.3 trillion m²) and surely not enough gas being supplied by Uzbekistan in the upcoming winter, tensions within the political debate slowly start to rise.

Today’s gathering was a first initiative by president Kurmanbek Bakiev to demonstrate strength. His order to hand in a list with ministers who are not fulfilling their duties (meaning: not saving the country’s economy from the inevitable) indicates to a possible cabinet’s reshuffle in the nearer or at least not so distant future. So far the Minister for Economic Development and Trade (such a ministry really exists!) Zhaparov was heavily criticized by the president himself as was his colleague, Minister for Industry, Energy and Fuel Resources (!) Saparbek Balkibekov. With prime minister Igor Chudinov being a pure puppet in Bakiev’s hand it is even likely that a new prime minister will be selected soon. November or December would be a good time for a new prime minister. The reason for the selection of the date would be as follows: the new prime minister just entered office and his duty is only to mitigate the consequences of the crisis which has been created by others (Chudinov & Co.). No miracles can be expected of him since he just started his term. This way, everybody can be blamed, but no one takes responsibility. And when the crisis is done, the crisis prime minister will be dismissed and a new party apparatchik gets the position. This interpretation explains the crisis as a chance for the power system, which regularly requires position reshuffles to satisfy all co-optational needs in the political sphere.

Perhaps the old crisis prime ministers Atambaev comes in for a second term? It seems unlikely, since it is difficult to sell such an appointment to the public. More likely is the appointment of one of the leaders of the opposition campaign, that is expected to gain momentum in September this year. However, being aware of the catastrophy in Tadzhikistan last winter, most people probably will spend all their time getting prepared for the cold period and not paying attention to oppositional claims. With no public getting into protest mood, opposition leaders have no chance to lead. In that case another party apparatchik (perhaps a woman? why not Bakiev’s loyal soldier Elmira Ibraimova?) would absolutely fit for the position.

On European Parliament and Kyrgyz Marshrutki Drivers

On April 12th AKIpress informed its readers about the European Parliament’s intention to cooperate with the Zhogorku Kenesh, probably on issues, already taken care of by special programs realized by UNDP and the European Comission. The same day AKIpress broadcasts a story about the protest of some hundred marshrutki drivers, who demand to increase ticket prices for a marshrutki trip up to ten som (almost 20 EuroCent) from now five som.

You wonder what the connection is between the two? In my opinion it is a brillant example of bad opportunities for development aid – but realized; and good opportunities for development aid – but even not recognized. The cooperation between EU Parliament and Zhogorku Kenesh promises to fail entirely like all its predecessors (actually being counterproductive) whereas the conflict of the marshrutki drivers could serve a testing field for new development-aid instruments aiming at better articulation and aggregation of real (cause related to material needs – „how to feed a family“) interests.

The marshrutki drivers in Bishkek do have a real problem. They are too many, there income depends on the numbers of passengers they transport and next to hungry kids at home they have to feed hungry chinovniki higher up in the city administration (greetings to Мэр Daniyar Usenov), hungry representatives of various controlling bodies (TekhObzor, GAI, etc.) and the ever hungry global market of increasing gas prices. The last point in particular became a problem recently, since gas prices increased in Kyrgyzstan 10% – 15% in 2007. And it is likely that they will increase even further, taking into consideration higher demand on the world market. The state company Kyrgyzneftegaz promised stable prices for gas for 2008, but that promise was made in January this year.

Transport service has always been tough in Bishkek. Thousands of Taxi drivers compete with marshrutkas and trolleybuses. The income for drivers of mashrutki and taxis depends on the number of passengers they serve. That pushes every marhsrutki driver first of all to stop wherever a possible client is waiting and waving his/her hand. Against all traffic rules of course. And it encourages them to carry as many passengers as possible. Correspondingly a marshrutka that is build to carry 15 passengers can be found stuffed with more than 25 clients. No need to mention an ever increasing level of aggression on all sides and thus high danger for car accidents.

It would be absolutely interesting to find more about this whole system called public transport in Bishkek. I remember a marshrutka driver, who was serving the road between Bishkek and Kant. He explained to me, that he has to complete an technical test, a breathalyzer test and one more test (don’t remember what it was) every morning before he starts driving. Obviously neither he (breathalyzer test) nor his marshrutka (technical check) were undergoing those tests. He told me, that he payed 5 som for each test as a bribe, so to get the necessary stamp. And then would start to work … – Really, I think it would be great to have some detailed information on the whole system, especially about the corruption chains starting from the poor driver up to … well, wherever it ends.

Development aid could work on this issue, building contacts to western-based union-representatives. Another option could be the organization of public space so for the protesting drivers to articulate their demands. And the organization of even more publicity with the hope to aid the aggregation of these real interests.

However, EU parliamentarians are more concerned with the fostering of good relations with the Zhogorku Kenesh deputies. Someday soon, the EU Parliament wants to send a delegation to conduct some discussions on what to cooperate on and what for. I think it will do what the EU commission is already doing (and is proud of):

„Основной целью Парламентского проекта Европейской комиссии и ПРООН является оказание долгосрочной технической помощи Жогорку Кенешу КР в целях усиления его потенциала для исполнения возложенных на него представительской, законодательной и контрольной функций.“

This basically means that EU is providing computers for the Zhogorku Kenesh administration (perhaps for some deputy’s assistants as well?) and some more technical stuff (printer, copy machine, some new technology for the recording section). At least this time they can trace where the new technology has gone, once the parliament is newly elected. Speaker Adakhan Madumarov is responsible for the ZhK administration and its officials.

The second sentence is about the cooperation for enhancing the ZhK’s potential to fulfill its controlling function. That is ridiculous. It would have been a sign of political protest, if the EU Parliament forced the European Commission to end all its activities regarding the Zhogorku Kenesh after the december elections. Now we have a rubber stamp parliament, where the speaker feels himself king, the ruling party (two-third majority) doesn’t care and the two pseudo oppositional parties are too small and too unwilling to really engage in political fight (most ridiculous the former communists under Iskhak Masaliev).

It is even worse, since the new parliament voted for a new statute, that grants the right to speak in front of the parliament only to heads of committees, initiators of legislative acts, the heads of the factions and the speaker and his deputies. That means, that basically every deputy has been deprived of his right to represent! … and thus to control!

So, why cooperation, if the structure doesn’t allow for it (next to the fact, that politically none is willing to exert control)? Control follows the political will to monitor the power holders. This will can’t be found in the parliament today. It is part of the executive branch and will not go for open conflict, as long as Bakiev pleases the deputies of his party Ak-Zhol. The political will is outside the parliament, some part of it is left in the dying opposition movement, the rest can be easily found in overstuffed marshrutki.

(p.s.: perhaps someone should propose to the EU Parliamentarians not to stay all day in Hyatt Regency Hotel in Bishkek (big fence around the building so that the EU representatives can not get in touch with the outer reality!) but actually try to make a ride with a marshrutka, let’s say with the 214 from Zapadnyj Avtovokzal through Osh Bazaar to Alamedin Bazaar. On a hot day, around 5pm.

I am sure they would feel the difference!)